Why do we always seem to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory?  

I ask because it is becoming clear from the daily tracking polls that the disastrous and horrid ABC News Debate is having a negative effect on the DEM frontrunner and likely nominee Barack Obama.  Many were hoping this would not happen but alas it appears to be so.

Like most here, I am severely disappointed in the decision reached by the State Court of Appeals in Maryland regarding the 1973 law banning same sex marriage.  By a narrow 4-3 vote the Court upheld the ban saying their is no state constitutional right for people to marry despite convincing arguments from the plaintiffs that the law violated their equal rights and denied them due process under the law.

The media's efforts to trumpet a so called rebound in Bush's approval met with some unfortunate resistance....the latest national polls.  While the two latests polls do show a slightly higher Bush approval at 37% and 38%, Bush's disapprovals in both are at near record highs.

Although it looked like a quick election would be called in Canada, that is looking a bit less likely today.  

There has been major bickering between the NDP and the Conservatives according the the Globe and Mail.  

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/...

And the latest poll out yesterday has the Liberals actually winning...bouncing back after just a few weeks of bad news.  They would likely win another minority government.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/...

Well it's technically the second time he has dropped to the 30's range in job approval.  The first was in the last poll from the American Research Group that had him sinking to 36% approval.

But with the bevy of polls released yesterday showing Bush clinging to a rating above 40%, I felt frustrated that despite all the bad he has done regarding Katrina he still had yet to drop below 40% in job approval.  

Well the new AP/IPSOS poll taken Sept 6-8 and released this morning shows Bush's approval rating has fallen to a record low of 39%!

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20050909/ap_on_re_us/katrina_ap_poll_hk1

I just have one word to say....FINALLY!    He sohuld have been there a long time ago.  I don't think this is the lowest he will go either.  I foresee a lot of hell to pay when the bodies start getting collected, an investigation gets started and when the vote on the Iraq Constitution inevitably sparks more violence there.

After a very tumultous Spring Session of Parliament that almost saw the overthrow of minority government of Paul Martin's Liberals, the party has rebounded in the polls and is on the cusp of a potential majoirty government.  

If the Canadian national election were held today, 39% of decided voters would cast a ballot for a Liberal candidate.  Only 24% of decided voters would vote for the main opposition party-the Conservatives led by Stephen Harper.  

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/servlet/story/RTGAM.20050725.wlibz0725/BNStory/National/

According to the latest American Research Group national poll President Bush's ratings have stayed at basement levels.

"George W. Bush's overall job approval ratings remain unchanged from a month ago according to the latest survey from the American Research Group. Among all Americans, 42% approve of the way Bush is handling his job as president and 52% disapprove."

http://americanresearchgroup.com/economy/

President Bush's ratings have sunk to new depths in statewide polls according to new polls just released by Survey USA.   Bush now has only a net positive rating in 17 states, is tied in 3 and a negative rating in 30 states!!!!!!

Just in May it looked like the minority goverment of Prime Minister Paul Martin would fall given the combined opposition of the Conservatives and the Bloc Quebecois.

But just yesterday the government easily survived a series of confidence votes in the House of Commons fighting off again attempts by the Conservative Party led by Stephen Harper to force a snap election.

Just a few weeks ago the Canadian Liberal Party led by Prime Minister Paul Martin were facing a critical confidence test in the Lower House of Parliament-the House of Commons.  Luckily the Martin goverment survived the two confidence votes on the proposed federal budget and a related amendment...surviving only when Conservative MP Linda Stronach changed parties to the Liberals and two of the independent MP voted with them.  The Liberal Speaker cast the decisive vote on amendment to the budget the would serve as the true vote of confidence.

Great news for Senator Ben Nelson in Nebraska.  His likely competitor in 2006 is accepting a position in the Bush cabinet.

http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&cid=514&e=4&u=/ap/20041202/ap_on_go_ca_st_pe /bush_cabinet

Gov. Mike Johanns will be appointed Agriculture Secretary.  That means he will likely not make a run against Sen. Nelson as he would have to start gearing up just later next year.  

Sen. Nelson was one of the more potentially vulnerable Democrats up for re-election in 2006. With the very popular Johanns out of the picture his chances for re-election just rose quite a bit higher.

Then I have one for you......the federal judiciary.  The judges that Bush has appointed are the most conservative in modern times and if re-elected then he might get to fill a great deal more seats including potentially 4 US Supreme Court seats!!!!!  Yikes!  

Read this:  

http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&ncid=1963&e=4&u=/nm/20040909/pl_nm/campaign_ judges_dc

According to the Hill, the liberal Democrat supporting 527 groups are very far behind in their goal of raising the hundreds of millions they wanted to run negative ads against President George W. Bush.

This is particulary disturbing considering that so many in the DEM party were counting on having these resources to combat the estimated 170 million that Bush will spend between now and his early Sept convention defining the DEM nominee....apparently Sen. Kerry.   Although Kerry opted out of the public finance system he is still not raising funds anywhere near the clip of George Bush and Kerry still has two major challengers who vow to fight him into March.  This will eat up most of his new found campaign funds just about the time that Bush and Rove start THE GREAT SMEAR campaign.  Kerry is particulary vulnerable to a smear campaign based on his extensive liberal voting record in the Senate, his controversial Vietnam protests, and his homestate connections (Kennedy, Dukakis, and MA gay marriages).

Another important fact is that these groups cannot directly coordinate with Kerry's campaign regardless of whether they raise the hundreds of millions they promised.

There is a new ABC/Washington Post poll of the Democratic Primary race.

Dean 20
Leiberman  12
Kerry  7
Sharpton  7
Clark   7
Gephardt 6
Braun 3
Edwards 2
Kucinich  2

Link:

http://abcnews.go.com/images/pdf/883a39GoreEffect.pdf

Below is how I see the political status of Southern states after the November 4th elections:

(Note: National Elections = President, Senator, U.S. Representative; State Elections=Governor and other statewide officers, state legislature.  "Registration" information from the state's Secretary State's Office. "Voter ID" information from Pew Research Center Polls taken after 9/11 to the present. Link to Pew Research Data can be found at the end of this entry.)

TEXAS-solidly GOP in national and state elections. Voter ID: 39% GOP, 29% DEM.

OKLAHOMA-solid GOP in national elections, moderately DEM in state elections. Registration: 53% DEM, 37% GOP.  Voter ID: 45% DEM, 38% GOP.

LOUISIANA-slightly GOP in national elections, strongly DEM in state elections. Registration: 57% DEM, 23% GOP. Voter ID: 42% DEM, 33% GOP.

ARKANSAS-even in national elections, moderately DEM in state elections. Voter ID: 34% DEM, 31% GOP.

TENNESSEE-strongly GOP in national elections, even in state elections. Voter ID: 35% GOP, 32% DEM.

KENTUCKY-strongly GOP in national elections, even in state elections. Registration: 58% DEM, 35% GOP. Voter ID: 44% DEM, 35% GOP.

MISSISSIPPI-strongly GOP in national elections, moderately DEM in state elections. Voter ID: 39% DEM, 36% GOP.

ALABAMA-strongly GOP in national elections, even in state elections. 36% GOP, 34% DEM.

GEORGIA-moderately GOP in national elections, moderately DEM in state elections. 36% DEM, 34% GOP.

FLORIDA-even in national elections, moderately GOP in state elections. Registration: 42% DEM, 39% GOP.  Voter ID: 37% GOP, 36% DEM.

SOUTH CAROLINA-strongly GOP in national and state elections. Voter ID: 37% GOP, 29% DEM.

NORTH CAROLINA-moderately GOP in national elections, moderately DEM in state elections. Registration: 48% DEM, 34% GOP. Voter ID: 44% DEM, 32% GOP.

VIRGINIA-moderately GOP in national elections, moderately GOP in state elections. Voter ID: 33% GOP, 30% DEM.

WEST VIRGINIA-slightly DEM in national elections, strongly DEM in state elections. Registration: 60% DEM, 29% GOP. Voter ID: 44% DEM, 33% GOP.

MARYLAND-Strongly DEM in national and state elections. Voter ID: 56% DEM, 30% GOP. Voter ID: 44% DEM, 31% GOP.

DELEWARE-Strongly DEM in national elections, moderately DEM in state elections. Registration: 43% DEM, 34% GOP. Voter ID: 32% DEM, 30% GOP.

So with this in mind I see Democrats realistically having a shot to win presidentially races in AR, WV, LA, FL, MD, DE totalling 60 electoral votes. Bush has these other states pretty much in the bag TX, OK, TN, KY, MS, AL, GA, SC, NC, VA(?) totalling 126 electoral votes.  Virginia is a question for the future as it is slowly moving into play.

The advantage for Republicans rest primarily on social issues which fueled their rise in the South.  These include:  race (specifically anti-African Americans sentiment), abortion, guns, God (religion), gays and feminism.  Other issues include "patriotism" personified by opposition to flag burning and support for the pledge of allegiance.  You might add "crime" but this is really tied into the issue of race in many ways.  Other non-social issues have also fueled the GOP rise include national security and taxes.  In the case of these issues national Democrats have increasingly found themselves on the "wrong" side as far as most Southern white are concerned.

So what kind of Democrat can win these states?  Well of course one perceived as strong on defense, against abortion, against gay rights, against gun control, very religious (Christian),  and for cutting taxes...in a word CONSERVATIVE.

Hummm...doesn't sound like many national Democrats I know.  In fact the guy who fits this pretty well just LOST as Governor of Mississippi by 8 pts!!!

So maybe what is needed is a new approach to the South.  Maybe a national Democratic candidate should just flat out acknowledge that he and most white Southerners aren't going to agree on most social issues.  But then he would then point out that those particular issues aren't the important ones in 2004....jobs, healthcare, education, trade, and other issues are.  The candidate will also have to be seen as adequate on national security/defense which might mean supporting the Iraq War which is still somewhat popular in many Southern states.

Now the question is will this approach work? Will emphaszing the economic over the social allow the Democratic nominee to be not only competitive but also win in the South?

http://people-press.org/reports/display.php3?PageID=750